Bitcoin’s recent pullback has sparked discussions about its potential to drop below $75,000 before April, but analysts suggest the probability remains low. According to Derive’s head of research, Dr. Sean Dawson, the likelihood of Bitcoin falling to this level has slightly increased, yet it still stands at only 9.2%.
Market Volatility and Bitcoin’s Price Movements
Bitcoin’s price movements have been heavily influenced by broader market volatility. On Jan. 27, BTC dropped 6.5% to $97,906 following a decline across both the crypto and stock markets. The sell-off was reportedly triggered by the release of China-based artificial intelligence project DeepSeek’s latest AI model. However, Bitcoin quickly rebounded above $100,000, and at the time of publication, it was trading at $102,100 according to CoinMarketCap data.
Dawson noted that Bitcoin’s at-the-money implied volatility surged from 52% to 76%, signaling increased demand for put options as traders sought to hedge against downside risks. Despite this, Bitcoin’s upward trajectory toward the $100,000 mark has limited the likelihood of a significant drop.
Bitcoin’s Correlation with Macroeconomic Trends
Bitfinex analysts highlighted that Bitcoin’s price movements are increasingly tied to macroeconomic trends rather than operating as an isolated digital asset. They emphasized that Bitcoin’s latest decline aligns with a broader stock market downturn, reinforcing its correlation with risk sentiment.
“In our view, Bitcoin is no longer just a digital asset playing by its own rules—it is now firmly tethered to the broader risk asset landscape,” Bitfinex analysts stated in their Jan. 27 market report.
This perspective suggests that Bitcoin’s price is influenced by external economic factors, making sudden downward moves less likely unless triggered by major macroeconomic shifts.
Arthur Hayes’ Bold Prediction: A Drop Before a Massive Surge?
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offered a different take, suggesting that Bitcoin could still see a pullback to the $70,000-$75,000 range. According to Hayes, such a drop could result in a “mini financial crisis,” potentially leading to an aggressive monetary policy response. He speculates that renewed money printing could propel Bitcoin to an astonishing $250,000 by the end of 2025.
While Hayes’ prediction is bold, it aligns with past trends where Bitcoin has surged following economic stimulus measures. If history repeats itself, any short-term correction could set the stage for a long-term bullish run.
Conclusion: A Dip Below $75K? Not Likely
Although the probability of Bitcoin falling below $75,000 has slightly increased, it remains under 10%, according to Dawson. With Bitcoin’s price currently stabilizing above $100,000, traders remain cautiously optimistic. While macroeconomic factors will continue to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory, the consensus among analysts suggests that a sharp decline is unlikely in the near term.
As always, the crypto market remains unpredictable, and investors should conduct thorough research before making trading decisions.
